Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
