Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
