Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
